As campaign season continues, politicians are turning up the volume on campaign rhetoric. To cut through the noise, we’re launching Campaign Context, a weekly series providing clarity on the messages you’re hearing from candidates on the campaign trail. We’re digging past the politics and into the facts to provide you with the transparent, spin-free information you need to make informed decisions this election season.

AUSTIN (KXAN) — As focus turns from Iowa results to future races, we look at how the caucuses actually help candidates as the 2024 Presidential Election season is officially underway — and so is our Campaign Context series, which clarifies messages from the campaign trail.

Iowa was the first state to choose its nominees for president. Voters braved freezing temperatures on Monday and overwhelmingly chose former President Donald Trump as their Republican nominee. Florida Gov. Ron Desantis finished a distant second, just ahead of former U.N. Ambassador Nikkie Haley.

Trump, Desantis and Haley all campaigned heavily in Iowa in hopes of winning to set the tone for their campaigns.

But why do candidates focus so heavily on Iowa, and how often does a winner there go on to win their party’s nomination?

To answer that question, we need to go back to 1976. For some context, the focus on Iowa is a nearly 50-year-old political strategy minted by a longshot presidential candidate named Jimmy Carter.

Carter was a little-known candidate, but his heavy campaigning in Iowa ultimately put him on the map, which led him to secure not just the Democratic nomination, but ultimately, the presidency.

However, an Iowa win doesn’t always translate to securing the nomination. Though both went on to win the presidency, Joe Biden came in fourth in 2020 in Iowa, and Donald Trump came in second in 2016.

Data from KXAN’s digital data reporter Christopher Adams shows since 2000, four out of the five Iowa caucus winners have gone on to secure the Democratic presidential nomination. Furthermore, just two Republican winners in Iowa have become the presidential nominee. When it comes to winning the president, the caucuses seem to be an unreliable predictor for both parties.

Since 2000, only one Democrat, Barack Obama, and one Republican, George W. Bush, have gone on to win the presidency after winning the Iowa caucus.

Now, Republicans are looking ahead to the next race, and we will be watching closely to bring you more Campaign Context after the New Hampshire primary happening in less than a week.