Nikki Haley is looking to outperform expectations in the Iowa caucuses next week in hopes of solidifying her status as the top challenger to former President Trump in the Republican presidential primary.

Haley has seen a surge in the polls and fundraising in recent weeks and has fallen under greater scrutiny from Trump, which her team says is a sign the former president is concerned about her rise.

But Trump still holds a dominant lead in Iowa, raising questions about whether Haley will be able to have a good enough showing to gain momentum from Iowa going into New Hampshire. 

According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling average, Trump leads the GOP field in Iowa with 51.6 percent support. DeSantis follows at 18 percent support, while Haley closely trails at 17.1 percent.

“It would always be great for someone to outperform expectations in Iowa, and right now Trump’s expectations are a resounding win,” said Matthew Bartlett, a New Hampshire-based Republican strategist. 

Republican presidential candidate former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley smiles during a break during a Fox News Town Hall, Monday, Jan. 8, 2024, in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

GOP strategists say New Hampshire and Haley’s home state of South Carolina will likely be more important to her path forward, as polls show Haley with a stronger lead over DeSantis.

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling average for New Hampshire shows Trump with a much narrower lead at 41.6 percent support, followed by Haley at 29.7 percent. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie follows Haley at 10.9 percent, and DeSantis comes in at 7.4 percent. 

“If [Trump] does not break 50 percent, that’s going to be significant, and where Nikki comes in and how close is going to be critical,” Bartlett said. “If she can make this a competitive race at the start here in New Hampshire and give Donald Trump a shock, that shock therapy to the campaign could ultimately change the dynamic of this race and make it much more competitive coming out of New Hampshire.” 

Haley hinted at this dynamic last week in New Hampshire when she said the state would “correct” Iowa’s results. Her critics were quick to pounce on Haley over the gaffe, which could hurt her chances in Iowa.

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But national Republican strategist Doug Heye noted that Iowa’s role in Republican primaries is often to “winnow the field.”

“It’s New Hampshire and South Carolina,” said Heye.

“A strong showing for Haley … gives her momentum in South Carolina. She’ll have her work cut out for her there too,” Heye said. “But complimenting the state that she’s putting a lot of eggs in is not a gaffe.”

Haley leads DeSantis in South Carolina polling, but it’s unclear whether she will be able to catch Trump in her home state. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling average shows Trump leading the field with a whopping 53.6 percent support, followed by Haley at 25.2 percent. DeSantis trails farther behind at 9.4 percent. 

However, some South Carolina Republicans say the race is far from decided in the Palmetto State, noting that much of what happens in South Carolina could be influenced by New Hampshire. 

“If she’s able to win in New Hampshire, I think it really sets up a true battle royal in South Carolina,” said Alex Stroman, a South Carolina Republican strategist. “If Trump comes into South Carolina with two wins and nobody else has any, the race is over.” 

Stroman noted that Haley has been underestimated in South Carolina in past elections, saying, “We’ve seen this play out.” 

“Another thing that people are forgetting is there are 32 days between New Hampshire and South Carolina,” he said. “If it’s Donald Trump versus Nikki Haley, you’re going to see Nikki barnstorming the state. She knows these areas.” 

Haley’s allies maintain that she is looking at multiple paths forward. 

“I think they’re all states that we want to win. Nikki is not playing for second. She’s said that over and over again. At the end of the day Nikki has so many pathways to moving forward,” said Preya Samsundar, a spokesperson for the pro-Haley Stand for America PAC. 

“It’s just about getting her across the finish line,” she said. 

And while Haley has a long hill to climb going into Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Trump has signaled in recent weeks that he views Haley as a threat. 

Last week, the Trump campaign rolled out an ad hitting Haley in New Hampshire over the flow of migrants over the southern border, claiming Haley’s “weakness” puts the country in danger while Trump’s “strength” protects it. 

The pro-Trump super PAC Make America Great Again Inc. also recently put out an ad showing resurfaced remarks from Haley in 2015, when she said it was “disrespectful” to describe immigrants crossing the border as “criminals.”

Haley has started to give more insight into how she will respond to a one-on-one match-up against her former boss. Last week during a CNN town hall in Iowa, Haley took one of her most aggressive stances against Trump yet, noting that chaos follows Trump. 

“And we can’t have a country in disarray and a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos. We won’t survive it,” she said. 

Unlike Trump, Haley is focused more on counterpunching her opponent than directly attacking him.

“I think she needs to continue to run her race and then contrast when necessary. She’s out there saying if Donald Trump is lying about me, I will tell the truth about him,” Bartlett said. “That is a position of strength. That is somebody that is saying, ‘I’m not going to start it, but I’m certainly not going to take it.’”

Republicans warn that Haley should not take the bait against Trump, noting past GOP presidential hopefuls, such as Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who saw his campaign flounder after he took Trump on directly in the primary. 

“Remember, when you roll around in the mud with a pig, you both get dirty, but the pig likes it. Donald Trump wants that,” Bartlett said. “Donald Trump benefits from that, and it seems as if she’s wise enough to know that she’s not going to do that.”

But Haley will also have to contend with DeSantis, who is taking aim at her in his fight to win back his second-place perch. Haley and DeSantis will face each other one-on-one Wednesday at a CNN debate in Iowa, while Trump sits down for his own town hall with Fox News. 

DeSantis has attacked Haley for being cozy with big-dollar donors and for being “phony,” while Haley has hit back at DeSantis over his stances on China. But Wednesday’s debate will paint a clearer picture of the dynamic between the two of them onstage. DeSantis, who arguably had one of his best debates of the cycle last month in Alabama, is seeking to regain any support that was lost in Iowa. 

Haley has also proven to be a formidable force on the debate stage, famously hitting back against attacks from fellow GOP presidential contender Vivek Ramaswamy. 

“I don’t think that it’s a goal to get into a fight with DeSantis, but as we’ve seen with her previous debate performances, she can be sharp as a razor, and she lit up Vivek Ramaswamy like a pinball machine,” Bartlett said. 

“It seems as if voters appreciate that.”